Manny Villar catches up to Noynoy Aquino in SWS survey

These were the thoughts that ran through my mind after reading in Inquirer dot Net’s breaking news that Presidential candidate Manny Villar had narrowed down Noynoy Aquino’s lead in a Social Weather Station survey.

Here’s an excerpt from that report:

Villar cut Aquino’s lead by eight points – from 19 to 11 percentage points, said the survey sought by San Juan representative Ronaldo Zamora, and conducted from December 27 to 28.

Of the 2, 100 respondents asked by the SWS in Filipino as to who on its list would they most likely vote for if elections were held today, 44 percent said they would go for Aquino while 33 percent for Villar.

Fifteen percent of the respondents chose former president Joseph Estrada while five percent for administration candidate Gilbert Teodoro, the survey said.

Television evangelist Eddie Villanueva came next with one percent, Senator Richard Gordon with 0.5 percent, and Senator Ana Consuelo “Jamby” Madrigal and independent John Carlos de los Reyes tied with 0.4 percent.

I subscribe to the idea that the publication of surveys that shout who is in the lead of one survey or another basically serves a propaganda for the leader in that survey.  It says that the leader of the survey is the one who is most likely to win in the electoral contest and this endows the survey leader with the advantage of a winnable image.

For the second most popular, the advantage of publishing a story that says he is catching up on the survey leader casts the electoral contest as a two way fight.  The other candidates in the electoral contests are cast as also-rans, even before the race is actually run on May 2010.

Moreover, I think that this propaganda of winnability in the form of claiming the lead in certain surveys has an effect on people.  It is a form of mental conditioning that puts blinders on the eyes of the voting public, brainwashing them into believing that the only choices they have are those that lead in the surveys.

Together with the fact that the Comelec makes little or no effort at all at leveling the playing field for all contenders in terms of campaign spending and the amount of political ads a candidate can put out — even before the start of the official campaign period, this creates a situation where in the only candidates that will be present in people’s mind are those that land on front pages because of surveys and those who can have their faces in media 24/7.

If Noynoy Aquino and Manuel Villar are the only names most people get exposed to most of the time, then it becomes most likely that people will think that these are the only contenders in the electoral contest.

On Twitter, there was an exchange between @momblogger (Noemi Dado, blogwatch) and pre-eminent blogger @mlq3 (Manuel Quezon III).  In that exchange, @mlq3 said this, apparently, in response to Noemi’s queries on whether surveys influence a voter’s decision:

@momblogger afaik only about 3% of voters decide on candidates on the basis of surveys

@momblogger If you look at ADMU’s Institute of Phil Culture study of D&E sources of influence on voting decision: http://tinyurl.com/yk4tx3y

Following the shortlink posted by @mlq3, I landed on a matrix showing the result of the Institute of Philippine Culture’s study on “Sources of Influence on voting decision.”

@mlq3 points to the result of a study saying that surveys influence only 3 percent of voters

This tends to go against my position that surveys influence people into voting for the leader in that survey.

That is, until you consider that surveys are published in the media and this forms part of the propaganda put out by the candidate, raising even further awareness for the survey leader.

But regardless of whether or not surveys do or do not influence how people vote, what is clear to me is that electing a leader means choosing the person with the best qualifications for a position and that involves examining a candidate’s worthiness based on a criteria.  Of course, the criteria by itself will not do you any good unless you get to know as much as you can about the other candidates.

If you want to go through various criteria for choosing a President or any candidate, you can go over to @momblogger’s blog.

I like watching debates between Presidential candidates more than reading their campaign propaganda or write ups about their latest activities in newspapers which actually be crafted by public relations professionals and advertising gurus in cooperation with members of the “friendly” press.

You get to see how well the candidates themselves answer questions in real time.  You don’t see them through the wall of hype created by their political ads.

Anyway, let me just re-post in full the announcement for the Carlos P. Romulo Foundation for Peace and Development debate organized in cooperation with ANC and the Asian Institute of Management.

Presidential Policy Debate Kicks Off

Thursday, January 14 at AIM

The Carlos P. Romulo Foundation for Peace and Development is pleased to announce that the first comprehensive debate on domestic and foreign policy among presidential candidates in the May elections will take place on Thursday, January 14 at the Asian Institute of Management (AIM).

Sen. Richard Gordon, Sen. Manuel Villar and former Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro will participate in the two-hour forum. Two other candidates – former President Joseph Estrada and Sen. Benigno Aquino III – were invited to join the discussion as early as October last year, but they declined.

Organized by the Romulo Foundation in cooperation with ABS-CBN News Channel (ANC) and AIM, the forum will focus on the broad theme of “Philippine Credibility and Competitiveness in the World”, and seek policy responses from the candidates on five main issues:

1.The Maguindanao massacre and the wider challenge of peace in the Philippine South – If elected President, what policies and programs will the candidate pursue to stop the problem of private armies, resolve the conflict in Mindanao and Sulu, and bring stability and development to the region?

2. Philippine foreign relations and international security – What significance does the candidate attach to Philippine relations with the world, what countries and regions are the most important, and should the nation be involved or not in the international struggle against terrorism?

3. Philippine economy and international economic relations – What policies will the candidate adopt to strengthen and grow the national economy, expand foreign trade and investments, and what importance does he attach to key economic organizations such as WTO, IMF, WB and APEC?

4. Migrant workers – What policies will the candidate adopt with respect to Filipino labor migration, the welfare of OFWs, Philippine relations with labor-receiving countries, and international conventions for the protection and rights of migrant workers?

5. Philippine competitiveness in the world – What specific policies and programs will the candidate adopt to reverse the erosion of Philippine international competitiveness in the world and address the problem of corruption?

“The primary purpose of the forum is to elicit from each candidate his specific policy ideas and solutions to major problems and challenges of national life today,” says Ambassador Roberto R. Romulo, Chairman of the CPR Foundation. “In this way, the forum will assist voters in reaching a decision on who to vote for.”

The forum will be moderated by Ricky Carandang of ANC. A question panel composed of Ambassador Rodolfo Severino, head of ASEAN Studies Center, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Philippine Star Editor/Columnist Amy Pamintuan, and CNN correspondent Jaime Floro Cruz will take turns in directing questions to the candidates.

Under the rules approved by the representatives of the candidates and the sponsoring organizations, the panel will question the candidates on the five main issues during the first hour of the forum. Each candidate will be given two minutes to state his position on each issue.

In the second segment, there will be an open forum participated in by both the question panel and the audience. Questions will be directed by them to the candidates individually.

In the final segment, the three candidates will each deliver a three-minute closing statement to sum up their policy positions and make their appeal to Filipino voters.

Organizers of the forum said the event will be attended by the business and diplomatic communities, the media and the general public. At least 20 ambassadors are expected to attend. Because of limited seats, interested parties are enjoined to reserve their seats early. Registration can be made via email: reyes@pfgc.ph or telephone 885-0921

The forum will be broadcast live by ANC on cable TV and ABS Studio 23 on terrestrial TV. “This will enable the Filipino citizenry all over the country to watch the event,” says Ambassador Romulo.